Phoenix Metro's Uneven Growth: A Closer Look at Population Trends
Which Areas Are Driving Phoenix’s Population Growth?
Let's talk about something that's happening right under our noses: the uneven population growth in the Phoenix metropolitan area. Despite being one of the top 10 fastest-growing markets in the country last year, not all parts of the Valley are sharing the wealth equally.
The Data Speaks
The U.S. Census Bureau just dropped some new data, covering changes from July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023. It paints a pretty clear picture of which areas are booming and which are lagging.
The Great Escape to Affordability
If you dig into the numbers, you'll see a pattern: people are fleeing to affordability. The areas that saw the biggest year-over-year percentage increases are in Pinal County and the West Valley. Why? Because these regions offer a lower cost of living, more affordable land for housing and commercial development, and burgeoning local economies.
Pinal County: A Hotbed of Growth
Pinal County is located just south of Phoenix and makes up about 10% of the total metro area’s population. Here's the kicker: the median single-family home price here is about 20% less than in Phoenix. Plus, it's strategically located along Interstate 10, making it easy for residents to commute to both Tucson and Phoenix.
Get this: four of the five fastest-growing cities in 2023 were in Pinal County. Coolidge, Eloy, Maricopa, and Casa Grande all saw annual population growth of more than 6%, with Coolidge leading the pack for the third year in a row. Thanks to lower housing costs and economic developments like Procter & Gamble’s $500 million manufacturing facility, Coolidge's population jumped by 9.4% in 2023, growing from about 13,500 people in 2020 to 18,300 today.
This boom is driving massive development. Since 2020, over 2,000 new apartment units have sprung up in Pinal County, expanding the stock of market-rate apartments by 50%. And let's not forget the millions of square feet of new industrial space from companies like Kohler, Lucid Motors, and Nikola.
Queen Creek: Riding the Wave
Queen Creek, straddling the boundary between Pinal and Maricopa counties, is riding the same wave. Most of its population is in Maricopa County, making it an East Valley city, but it's benefiting from the same demand drivers.
West Valley: The New Frontier
On the west side, the affordable suburbs are turning into population magnets. Goodyear, Buckeye, Surprise, and Wickenburg all ranked in the top 10 fastest-growing cities in the Valley last year. These areas have become critical links in national supply chains, with industrial development booming along the Loop 303 corridor.
The Southwest Valley is now the top multifamily construction submarket in Phoenix. Around 6,100 units are under construction, outpacing traditional hotspots like Downtown Phoenix and Tempe.
Phoenix and Scottsdale: Slow and Steady
Now, let's not forget about Phoenix and Scottsdale. While they didn't see the explosive growth of some of these up-and-coming areas, they still recorded healthy gains last year. Folks from pricey coastal markets in California and the Pacific Northwest are flocking here for the relative affordability and job opportunities.
Phoenix added 6,200 people in 2023, a 0.4% gain, while Scottsdale saw a 0.6% increase with 1,400 new residents.
The Future
So, what's next? The long-term drivers that bring people to the Valley are still in place. A growing, diversifying local economy and housing affordability will likely continue to support population growth in the years to come.
In summary, while the Phoenix metro area is growing, it's clear that affordability and economic opportunity are driving people to specific regions. The future looks bright for these burgeoning areas, but the whole Valley stands to benefit from this growth.